Summarize：www.chinabuses.org:
Analysis of the Development of New Energy Buses
1. National Policy Guide:
The government further promotes new energy and actively encourages the development of related industry, making sure 7 pilot operation cities such as Tianjin, Haikou, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Suzhou, Tangshan and Guangzhou based on original 13 cities.
2. Important Games (World Expo; Asian Games):
The largest scale of business operation of our new energy vehicles was realized in Shanghai World Expo, referring to electric, hybrid power and fuel cell buses. In addition, it offers more requirements for new energy buses in Guangzhou Asian Games
The policies and important games make active impact on development, producing sales and demonstration operation of new energy buses in China. It is predicted that there will be 60,000 new energy vehicles before 2012. According to the related objectives for new energy vehicles, the new energy vehicles will account for a half of the total, about 65 million units. In the future 3 to 5 years, our new energy vehicles will experience the key period of industrialization, marketization and development of our new energy vehicles.
Prediction of Market Development of New Energy Buses
In China, new energy buses mainly cover hybrid power, natural gas, electric, cell fuel, liquefied petroleum gas and alcohol fuel buses. Hybrid power buses and natural gas buses have been in test operation in some regions. In the end of this April, some standard regulations about electric buses have been passed through be related departments, which accelerate the industrialization of electric buses. In the meantime, new intercity buses and tourist coaches got more attention.
Obstacles for Promotion and Popularity of New Energy Buses:
a. Technology :
Domestic bus builders intend to develop electric buses; however, there is still big gap for our technology to foreign counterpart, in particular, key technologies such as battery and motor. Actually, there are only Ankai Bus, Zhongtong Bus and Foton Bus winning certificate in “Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” although many China bus builders frequently launches electric buses.
b. Cost and Price:
The cost of new energy buses is high. The cost of each luxury bus exceeds 2 million Yuan and each cell takes around 70,000 Yuan (service life: about 2 to 3 years). The maintenance cost is also higher than that of conventional buses.
c. Low Subsidy:
Our current subsidy is 20,000 to 30,000 Yuan for each new energy bus. Many local governments issued some subsidy policies, which making big influence on releasing purchasing pressure. If the national subsidy can be raised highly, the range of popularity of new energy buses can be enlarged.
It still will take a long way for industrialization of electric buses. Concerning hybrid power buses, the advantage of diesel fuel-electric hybrid power buses is the fuel consumption reduction of 30% , emission standard (National Standard Ⅳ) and disadvantage is battery capacity and life service. Based on current condition in China, hybrid power buses will be the mainstream products if the price lows down over 10% and service life of 8-year can be confirmed.
