McKinsey: China May Be Market Leader In Electric Vehicles
2008-10-30 Source：www.chinabuses.org
McKinsey Company worldwide director Mr. Gaoxu told reporters on the 29th, in the traditional auto industry, China lags behind the world's leading standard for decades, but such as electric vehicles, the new energy bus field is in the same starting line. China has market and cost advantages ,and has the potential to be leader of global electric vehicles market.
McKinsey has spent more than 8 months on researching North America, Europe, China and India's bus market. His report, "China is forging ahead: the opportunities for electric vehicles" pointed out, in the promoting energy-saving and reduction trend ,China's automotive industry, government and consumers have conditions to meet the electric vehicle. In China the development of electric vehicles can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dependence on imported oil.
The report notes that China has become the world's second-largest auto market, by 2030 will exceed the United States, ranks first. If China's automobile industry develops on the current 12 percent average annual growth rate, by 2030, China's bus volume will up to 287,000,000,about 30% of the total motor vehicles of world at that time. Unless China uses new fuel-efficient technologies, such a large number of vehicles will cause a tremendous energy and environmental pressure. Taking into account the petrol and diesel-powered bus is still dominant, in 2030 China will need to import nearly 900,000,000 tons of oil to provide fuel for vehicles.
The report observed that if China adopt a series of advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, compressed natural gas bus and gas-combustion engine technology by 2030, China's bus carbon dioxide emissions is likely to reduce by 40%. If electric vehicles in China in 2030 accounted for 30% of all buses, then China will cut its total oil demand of 10%.
Gao told reporters that Chinese government has been actively promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry, providing funding for research and development of research institutes and industry, and in several pilot cities to promote electric vehicles and charging equipment. A number of Chinese automobile manufacturers are also actively into the global electric vehicle market. There are a number of Chinese enterprises in the United States, Japan, Italy and Finland to provide batteries for electric buses. He believes that if the electric vehicle to achieve 30% market share by 2030, the market will reach 1.5 million yuan.
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