Automotive 2020: All Vehicles to Run on hybrid Power in 12 years
2008-08-21 Source：english.chinabuses.com
All new vehicles will have some type of hybrid power system within 12 years, according to the IBM Automotive 2020 Study of automotive executives around the globe.
The 25-page report, released last week at a Center for Automotive Research conference in Traverse City, Mich., also finds the industry looking to address consumers' desires for flexibility, intelligent vehicles, safety and environmental responsibility.
In addition to navigation, driver information and connectivity to a multitude of electronic devices, evolution of the so-called "intelligent vehicle" will focus on green technology.
According to the study, future hybrid engines, those using more than one fuel source, are likely to include:
Micro hybrids that power down when the vehicle is stopped.
Regenerative braking that builds up power during braking.
Mild hybrids that provide extra power, but by themselves can't run the vehicle.
Full hybrids that can run at least part time on their electric motors.
The report also says hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles will remain a viable option, but are unlikely to gain more than 1 percent of the U.S. market. The execut ives see ethanol evolving from corn and other food-based production to the use cellulose and waste.
Buyers may also enter the 2020 decade with a new flexibility, according to IBM. The model depicted by executives will have consumers driving a primary vehicle that best meets their daily needs with the option to swap that out as needed. For example, someone may commute in a fuel-efficient vehicle, but have access to a sport utility for the weekend or a luxury sedan to attend a wedding.
"Basic transportation will no longer be enough for increasingly empowered consumers. They want an automotive experience that matches their lifestyles and lets them move seamlessly from life inside the vehicle to their world outside," said Sanjay Rishi, vice president and global automotive industry leader for IBM, in a statement accompanying the report.
The study also defines five imperatives likely to set apart successful companies in 2020:
Auto companies must embrace new mobility models, including ownership and usage models, and integration of other modes of transportation.
Auto companies and dealers will need to find new ways to connect with sophisticated consumers and develop a new value proposition for dealerships.
As vehicles become more connected and intelligent, manufacturers must establish common processes and standards.
To address the increasing cost of innovation, companies need to widen their enterprise innovation networks and extend partnerships beyond current suppliers.
Manufacturers and suppliers should create balanced, flexible operations aligned with local economies while having a positive social impact.
"In the face of such significant and chaotic change, finding clarity will require the automotive industry to take sweeping and rapid action. Two of the greatest areas of opportunity are meeting consumer demands for environmental accountability and using technology to transform the way the industry develops products and goes to market," said Rishi. Findings of the IBM Global Business Services report are based on interviews conducted in 2008 with 125 industry executives in 15 countries from businesses including the top 10 automakers.
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