Summarize：www.chinabuses.com: Part One: general analysis of new energy buses Q1 to Q3
5677 new energy buses were sold from Jan to Sept., up 60.6% over last year. And most new energy buses were sold in Jan, March, April, and Sept., and the sales volumes are over 700 units. Most large buses were sold in this period, for the frequent starts and stops of city buses and the major buyers are government, city bus operators etc. And new energy buses will be the trend of future development in the long run.
Sales of new energy buses in differnet areas
1. Sales of new energy buses were increasing greatly before 2011, but the sales were decreasing from Jan to Sept. last year, down 20%. And the sales in the same period this year were increasing, up 60.6%.
2. Sales growth of light buses were the largest, and then it comes large buses and most large buses were sold.
3. Most large buses were sold, and then it comes medium buses and light buses.
Part Two: top 15 areas on sales of new energy buses and their shares Q1-Q3
|
Bus
|
Jan-Sept 2007
|
Jan-Sept 2008
|
Jan-Sept 2009
|
Jan-Sept 2010
|
|
large bus
|
910
|
239
|
478
|
2789
|
|
medium bus
|
377
|
499
|
546
|
1456
|
|
light bus
|
205
|
122
|
160
|
301
|
|
total
|
1492
|
860
|
1184
|
4546
|
|
|
Jan-Sept 2011
|
Jan-Sept 2012
|
Jan-Sept 2013
|
Growth %
|
|
large bus
|
2778
|
2258
|
3075
|
36.1
|
|
medium bus
|
1345
|
1129
|
2089
|
85.0
|
|
light bus
|
302
|
147
|
513
|
248.9
|
|
total
|
4425
|
3534
|
5677
|
60.6
|
We can see from the above chart that 5477 new energy buses were sold in the top 15 key areas, taking 96% shares, but the distribution is not balance.
Part Three: market analysis of new energy buses from Q1 to Q3
Sales of new energy buses were robust in Q1 to Q3, esp Yutong, Higer, Ankai, Sunwin, Wuzhoulong and Hengtong Bus.
Use of new energy buses were rather good this year. It is understood that, the saving rate of most hybrid buses is around 15% in actual operation at this stage. In the actual operation of many pure electric passenger cars, the battery is still the short board that hinders the development of new energy bus. High failure rate and high maintenance costs are also universal problems in the demonstration of new energy buses.
Most cities have more hybrid city buses, and there are only Tangshan, Hefei, Chengdu etc cities which have all pure electric buses. And the purchasing mode are mainly government biddingm city bus operator bidding and bus builders assignment. In Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Suzhou and Xiangyang, they mainly appoint local bus builders to buy new energy buses, and we can see that local protectionism is rather strong .
The most new energy buses were sold by Yutong, King Long, Golden Dragon, Higer, Wuzhoulog, Sunwin, Hengtong and Shudu Bus. And the general operation of the new energy buses are good despite some minor failures and weak power performance, and the fuel prudent are rather good, and they can save 10% above fuels. For example, Haikou city has have 100 pure electric city buses on running and they have 2 major recharging stations and 4 city bus refill stations, and the total investment has amounted to 900 million Yuan.
Xiamen City is boosting the use of new energy buses, and they have over 1000 energy-saving and new energy vehicles running and 400 of which are city buses.
In Linyi, Liaocheng, Taian and Qingdao, new energy buses are starting to use and there are over 150 pure electric city buses running in Linyi. In Tangshan, Chongqing, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Haikou, Nantong etc. there are no less than 100 new energy buses. In Liaocheng and Linyi, they are applying for becoming demonstration cities.
Part Four: analysis of new energy buses subsidy polies to the markets
On Sept. 17, 2013, Ministry of Finance, MOST etc, four major ministries carries out the Notice for new energy vehicle subsidities. And it rules that more demonstrating cities will be added and the use of new energy buses will be expanded to surrounding areas.
No less than 10000 new energy buses will be used for large cities and key areas from 2013 to 2015. And the selected demonstrating cities can eliminated from the list if they cannot meet the requirements. And central government will derectly gave subsidy to the bus builders so that they can break the local protectionism to some extent.
It is worthwhile to notice there is a new trend in the hybrid bus that the gas-electric hybrid buses began getting special favorites from some operators. For example, there are Haige gas-electric hybrid buses in the bus line of Guangdong, Suzhou. According to the reports, Haige gas-electric hybrid bus are hybrid buses that uses liquefied natural gas to get instead of diesel engine, and has the characters of infinitely variable speed motor, automatic clutch, and low emissions.
It is foreseeable that hybrid buses will be continuously used as main models of China's new energy bus demonstration and operation in the coming years.
According to authorities tracking research, from January to Sept in 2013, demonstration and application problems of new energy buses remain in the following areas. the new energy automobile manufacturing is not at forward design stage but is at modified stage and is lack of core technology patents. We should pay great attention to promotion of safety, reliability technology and lightweight technology.
