Summarize：www.chinabuses.org: III. The largest market for high-end buses is Guangdong, followed by Zhejiang and Jiangsu.
|
|
0.9-1.5M
|
Market
Shares%
|
1.5-2M
|
Market
Shares%
|
Over
2M
|
Market
Shares%
|
Total
|
Market
Shares%
|
|
Fujian
|
46
|
6.53
|
39
|
8.37
|
23
|
6.50
|
108
|
7.09
|
|
Zhejiang
|
69
|
9.8
|
81
|
17.38
|
66
|
18.6
|
216
|
14.17
|
|
Guangdong
|
72
|
10.23
|
79
|
16.95
|
69
|
19.5
|
220
|
14.44
|
|
Beijing
|
44
|
6.25
|
40
|
8.58
|
30
|
8.47
|
114
|
7.48
|
|
Jiangsu
|
75
|
10.65
|
67
|
14.38
|
38
|
10.73
|
180
|
11.81
|
|
Liaoning
|
44
|
6.25
|
35
|
7.5
|
23
|
6.50
|
102
|
6.69
|
|
Sichuan
|
49
|
6.96
|
29
|
6.22
|
23
|
6.50
|
101
|
6.63
|
|
Shandong
|
60
|
8.52
|
29
|
6.22
|
26
|
7.34
|
115
|
7.55
|
|
Shanghai
|
30
|
4.26
|
28
|
6.00
|
19
|
5.37
|
77
|
5.05
|
|
Hebei
|
27
|
3.83
|
20
|
4.29
|
14
|
3.95
|
61
|
4.00
|
|
Total
|
516
|
73.28
|
447
|
95.89
|
331
|
93.46
|
1294
|
84.91
|
From the above we can see:
1. For over CNY 0.9 million buses, ten major markets including Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing and Jiangsu, etc. account for 84.91% of the whole high-end bus market, rising 1.6% over the same period last year. For CNY 0.9-1.5 million buses, then ten markets account for 73.28%, rising 1.8%; for CNY 1.5-2 million, 95.89%, rising 6.4%.
2. In Jan.-June 2013, the largest market for high-end buses is Guangdong, followed by Zhejiang and Jiangsu, which means the market scale is related to economic level.
3. Jiangsu is the largest market for CNY 0.9-1.5 million buses, Zhejiang for CNY 1.5-2 million ones and Guangdong for over CNY 2 million ones.
IV. Conclusion: the growth slows down and the capacity is inversely proportional to the price
1. Sales of over CNY 0.9 million buses in the first half of 2013 increased by 3.81% year on year, 2.95% less than the growth rate of 6.76% in 2012.
2. In the first half of 2013, sales of CNY 0.9-1.5 million buses ranked No.1 among the high-end buses, which obeys the law of development during the six years.
3. Sales of CNY 1.5-2 million buses decrease along with the booming of overall bus market, but still rank No.2.
4. Sales of over CNY 2 million buses follow the same rules: the higher the price is, the lower the sales are, which is also related to the purchasing power and rate of return.
5. In Jan.-June 2013, the largest market for high-end buses is Guangdong, followed by Zhejiang and Jiangsu.
6. The competition of high-speed rails is stressing luxury bus market, the impact of which is different to different price sections. The higher-price bus market is more sensitive to the competition.
V. Analysis on the Slowdown of the Growth Rate
In the first half of 2013, the year-on-year growth is because:
1. Facing the fierce competition of high-speed rails, high-end bus manufacturers are well prepared to expand luxury bus market through attacking the weakness and shortcomings of the rails.
2. Thanks to the regulatory policies, the recession of real estate markets impacts local GDP and the governments have to stimulate the tourist markets, which promotes the growth of tourist buses.
3. The accelerating M2 and lowering of credit threshold reflect the active tendency of financing, which promotes the sales of high-end buses to some extent.
In the first half of 2013, the growth rate of high-end bus market slows down because:
1. To restrain the real estate and inflation, tightened monetary policy was implemented in the first of 2013 and the government confined the capital of commercial banks, which influenced the financing of the customers of high-end buses.
2. The excessive transport capacity in the first half of 2013 still existed and normally empty-loading ration reached 50%, even over 60%. National and local governments’ control measures against the vicious competition impacted the customers of over CNY 0.9 million buses.
3. Co-existence of various means of transportations encroaches the markets of high-end buses. Some enterprises wage price war, impairing the whole market.
4. High risks of operating high-end buses consist of the increasing investment cost of routes and buses.
5. High-end bus operators become rational to the temptation of so many brands of products.
7. Lacking of important events like 2010 Shang Expo and Guangzhou Asian Games impacts the market.
8. Serious inflation in domestic market influences the export of high-end buses.
9. Skyrocketing house price lures the investors to real estate market instead of high-end bus market.
