Summarize：www.chinabuses.org: I. Market overview: dropping of general growth rate and fluctuation status
The latest data shows in the first half of 2013, sales of high-end buses worthy of CNY 0.9 million reached 1524 units, increasing by 3.81% of 56 units over the same period in 2012, while the growth rate declined by 2.95% than that of 6.76% in 2012. High-end bus market, like the entire one, encounters with influences from various factors. The details are as follows:
|
|
Jan.
|
Feb.
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
Total
|
|
2013
|
301
|
289
|
220
|
211
|
256
|
247
|
1524
|
|
2012
|
288
|
313
|
174
|
200
|
241
|
252
|
1468
|
|
Y-O-Y Rise%
|
4.5
|
-7.67
|
26.4
|
5.5
|
6.2
|
-1.98
|
3.81
|
From the above we can see that overall growth rate in the first half of 2013 reached 3.81%, including two-month minus and four-month plus. The max dropping in February and max rising in March shows the unstable fluctuation of the market.
II. Analysis on the sales of luxury buses in the first half of 2007-2013, the growth of buses worth CNY 0.9-1.5 million resembled that of CNY 1.5-2 million, while sales of CNY 2 million ones declined.
Sales of over CNY 0.9 million Buses within 8 Years
|
Year
|
Jan.-Dec. 2007
|
Jan.-Dec. 2008
|
Jan.-Dec. 2009
|
Jan.-Dec. 2010
|
Jan.-Dec. 2011
|
Jan.-Dec. 2012
|
Jan.-June 2013
|
|
Units
|
2086
|
2336
|
2431
|
2889
|
3176
|
3332
|
|
|
Year
|
Jan.-June 2007
|
Jan.-June 2008
|
Jan.-June 2009
|
Jan.-June 2010
|
Jan.-June 2011
|
Jan.-June 2012
|
Jan.-June 2013
|
|
Units
|
1048
|
1104
|
867
|
1298
|
1375
|
1468
|
1524
|
Year-on-year Growth within 7 Years
|
Year
|
Jan.-Dec. 2007
|
Jan.-Dec. 2008
|
Jan.-Dec. 2009
|
Jan.-Dec. 2010
|
Jan.-Dec. 2011
|
Jan.-Dec. 2012
|
Jan.-Dec. 2013
|
|
Growth%
|
12.3
|
5.34
|
-21.47
|
49.71
|
5.93
|
6.76
|
3.81
|
From the above we can see that
The seven years sees the growth of buses worthy of over CNY 0.9 million from 2086 units to 3332 units, 2086 units in 2007, 2336 units in 2008, 2889 units in 2010 and 3176 units in 2011. Except the year-on-year decrease in 2009 due to the economic crisis, other years lived up to the growth rule.
The max increase occurred in 2010, then 2007 and 2012. Negative increase was attributed to economic crisis in 2009 and growth slowed down in 2013.
Sales of High-end Buses within 6 Years
|
Price
|
CNY 0.9-1.5 million
|
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Units
|
573
|
453
|
651
|
711
|
689
|
704
|
|
Price
|
CNY 1.5-2 million
|
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Units
|
309
|
226
|
358
|
389
|
478
|
466
|
|
Price
|
over CNY 2 million
|
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Units
|
222
|
188
|
289
|
275
|
301
|
354
|
From the above we can see that:
We segment the market into three sections with prices of CNY 0.9-1.5 million, CNY 1.5-2 million and over CNY 2 million.
During the seven years, sales of buses worthy of CNY 0.9-1.5 million decreased in 2009 and 2012. The sales increased the most in 2010.
Growth of CNY 0.9-1.5 million Buses within 6 Years
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Increment
|
16
|
-120
|
198
|
60
|
-22
|
15
|
|
Rate%
|
2.87
|
-26.49
|
43.71
|
9.2
|
-3.1
|
2.18
|
Growth of CNY 1.5-2 million Buses within 6 Years
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Increment
|
51
|
-83
|
132
|
31
|
89
|
-12
|
|
Rate%
|
19.76
|
-26.2
|
58.4
|
8.66
|
22.9
|
-2.5
|
As the falling tendency from 2008 to 2009 we can see, sales in Jan.-June 2009 decreased by 26.2% year on year, i.e. 83 units, while year-on-year growth rose 58.4% in 2010, 8.66% in 2011, 22.9% in 2012 and -2.5% in 2013. What's more, 13.7m super large bus is non-mainstream product.
Growth of over CNY 2 million Buses within 6 Years
|
Year
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Increment
|
-11
|
-34
|
101
|
-14
|
26
|
53
|
|
Rate%
|
-4.7
|
-15.3
|
53.7
|
-4.84
|
9.5%
|
17.6
|
From the above we can see that different from the other two sections, the over CNY 2 million one encountered with the fluctuation, down in 2008 and 2009, up in 2010, down again in 2011 and up again in 2012 and 2013, which shows the great impact of national macro policy to this section.
