Summarize：www.chinabuses.org:
Based on the macro economy of the policies & regulations, the macro environment of the vehicle market in 2011 was not as good as that of in 2010.
However, in China, the vehicle market demand is still very big. According to the Ministry of Public Security statistics, by the end of 2009, there were 62.09 million units of vehicles, among which the passenger transport vehicles were 48.40 million units and the cargo transport vehicles were 13.68 million units. At that time, China had a population of 1.33 billion, so it could be figured out that in 2009, every one thousand Chinese people possessed 46.5 units of car. In 2009, every one thousand Chinese people possessed 34.4 units of passenger transport vehicles. Compared with the developed foreign countries, the level is still very low. So it is seen from the vehicle market is not in saturation situation. The sales growth of vehicles in the years of 2012, 2013 & 2014 will continue to be improved and maintain stable increased.
The Prediction of the bus & coach markets
The overall sales growth of large and medium size buses in the year of 2011 have weakened than in the year of 2010, but the total amount is still in the positive growth condition. Among them, the intercity buses between rural areas and city areas in 2011 is a growth highlight of the overall bus market. In 2013, the large and medium size buses will have a certain negative growth trend, as the mainly reason is the more rail networks to be built by the end of 2012, which will take up parts of the highway passenger market share. In 2014 and 2015, the growth of the large and medium size bus market will have a certain rebound. Then the bus sales will become the growth highlight.
In the terms of small buses, the future small buses will mainly be the one that is used for short distance logistics in the city. At the same time, the small buses will develop to be the specialty functional small buses. Along with the continuous development of city logistics industry and the limited road line policy in the city, the small buses as a city transport logistics special vehicle have obvious advantages than the light trucks. At the same time, the small buses can be used as both the passenger transport vehicle and cargo transport vehicle; however the light trucks have not such function. During the year of 2011 ~ 2015, it is expected that the sales of the small buses will become steady growth. But, under the negative effect of the big small bus market, the sales growth rate of the small buses will be lower.
The prediction of all buses that China own in the future
The prediction of the coaches in highway passenger transportation: the flow of highway passenger transportation market is unbalanced in regional markets, which shows that in the key market concentration is higher. Guangdong regional market is the highway passenger flow most market, with its sales developing significantly more.
Key market concentration is higher, which its sales developed significantly more. For the coach manufacturing enterprises, it provides specific market basis to formulate its marketing strategy of highway passenger transportation.
The prediction of small buses which are own by the regional markets: In the term of the small buses, the mainly sales regional markets are in Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Beijing, Shandong Province, Guangdong Province and other developed regional markets. It is seen that the main regional market for small buses are also the main economic development areas which shows the direct proportion relationship between them and this need relationship is more obvious than the private car market. At the same time, the sales growth in mid-western part of Chinese market over the past two years is also increasing. In the relatively developed second cities, the small bus sales growth in the future will be the highlight.
