Summarize：www.chinabuses.org: Part four Comprehensive Analysis
1. Sales of all kind of luxurious buses were increasing in 2010, ending the unstable market growth in five years.
2. Although sales of luxurious coaches valuing over 900,000 Yuan increased by 18.8%, the biggest growth in the previous years, but their general ratio is still under 1.5%.
3. The biggest growth segment markets in terms of absolute quantity were 1.5-2.0 million Yuan, and 224 units were increased, up 37.5%.
4. Market concentration of luxurious coaches valuing over 900,000 Yuan is comparatively high, and the figure is 79.1% in the top ten areas.
5. In luxurious coaches segment markets, the higher the prices are, the higher market concentration is. So this can be inspired to the bus builders that they can concentrate more resources to break key areas to avoid resources waste and marketing risks.
Part Five Analysis of “declining” growth of sales of luxurious coaches in 2010
1. The general economy in China drives the sales of bus markets, including luxurious coaches.
Table 9 Sales growth of luxurious coaches in each month
|
|
Jan.
|
Feb.
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
|
Growth
|
97.8
|
90.9
|
64.2
|
63
|
58.7
|
50.1
|
|
|
July
|
Aug.
|
Sept
|
Oct.
|
Nov.
|
Dec.
|
|
Growth
|
46.7
|
42.1
|
35.8
|
35.7
|
32.7
|
30
|
Figure 9 Sales growth of luxurious coaches in each month
It can be seen that sales growth of China bus markets are declining from January to December, so is luxurious buses markets.
2. As the main part of luxurious buses, although sales of 11-12-meter buses were increasing, sales of super large buses were always declining, which will definitely influence the total sales.
Table 10 Sales growth of 11-12m buses in each month
|
|
Jan.
|
Feb.
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
|
Growth
|
187
|
167
|
139
|
134
|
105
|
98
|
|
|
July
|
Aug.
|
Sept.
|
Oct.
|
Nov.
|
Dec.
|
|
Growth
|
95
|
98
|
85
|
83
|
77
|
70
|
Figure 10 Sales growth of 11-12m buses in each month
3. More and more Bullet trains and High-speed Railways greatly influences sales of luxurious coaches.
4. Tourist coaches excess and actual needs are declining.
Around 5% less people chose to visit in the first ten months in 2010, and market needs for tourism buses are largely declining.
5. Bank loans are transferring to property industry etc. more profiting industries.
6. Operation costs for luxurious buses are raised about 10% due to reforms of fuel oil tax and increasing oil price.
7. Robust growth of new energy buses is another reason to drive sales growth of luxurious buses.
Part six Basic judgement on luxurious buses markets in 2011
There are both advantages and disadvantages for luxurious buses in 2011.
1. Disvantages.
a. Bus operators are still facing operation difficulties. Bus operators qualification and emission upgrade from national 2 to national 3 still exist.
b. The general bus markets are excess.
c. Highway-Railway competition will become more and more fierce as more and more bullet trains are operating.
d. Increasing price of oil fuel tax and oil price demand more operation fees.
e. China monetary policy are shifting from loosing to steady, which may influence loan sources.
f. The financial crisis is still influencing.
2. Advantages
a. Positive financial and land management are under way to ensure better credit and land provision.
b. China will invest a lot on construction of highways to stimulate domestic needs and increase employments.
c. Tourism industry will still develop in 2011.
d. Wages for citizens were increasing, and middle-class became the main driving force in urban commercial markets.
e. Urban infrastructure construction will be speeding up, which will also stimulate sales growth of urban BRT.
f. New energy buses and city buses with large capacities will be largely increased.
