Summarize：www.chinabuses.org: Part 2 Analysis of main factor influencing 2009 Bus Markets
a. Financial crisis swept bus industry, so market demands shrank and sales volumes decreased; decrease amplitude of bus industry was over 30% in the first half of 2009. And it was in the second half of 2009 bus industry started to recover.
b. Central government policies on pulling domestic needs didn’t do much on bus industry. Bus industry doesn’t weigh a lot in national economy, and it’s much influenced by policies. So bus industry doesn’t benefit as much as passenger vehicles since most of the stimulate package were put property markets.
c. Fierce competition from railway transportations. As speed acceleration and openness of motor train unit, bus industry was greatly influenced by the absolutely advantageous rival. And this is the third factor influencing passenger transportation. In the competition between road passenger transportation and railway, the former is disadvantaged regarding to ticket price, efficiency, safety, as well as comfort. So Improvement of railway will inevitably affect road transportations. Starting from 2009, many Motor train units were opened across Sichuan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Hebei, Anhui and Hubei provinces, and all the lines were popular. What bus passenger Transportation Company can do is to price down.
d. Excess transportation capacity in tourism markets
According to statistics, about 11% less people went out for tourism from Jan. to Oct. this year. And controdictation of excess transportation capacity in domestic tourism markets is more prominent than anytime before, reflecting in the following three aspects, the first is number of tourists was reduced, the second is structural adjustment of tourism industry, and the third is the shock from road passenger transport.
e. Development of countryside passenger transport is restricted by policy
As required by General Office of the State Council, governments of all levels should support countryside passenger transport industry and passenger transport in islands, reservoir areas, lake areas. And this truly promotes developments of countryside passenger transport markets, for the subsidies and low price policy in city public transport are useful in city counterpart business. But the policy isn’t well implemented.
f. China bus export is largely affected by international economic environments
In 2009, twenty-eight of the forth-eight bus builders’ exported and sales volumes decreased by 55%, and revenues for exporting were down 56%, barely no better than the first half year, and the figure of large buses was even broadening. Although China macro-economy is getting better, the world economic situation is still rather slow.
Apart from the systematic risks and exchange rate risks by international macro-economy, every link of bus exporting has risk.
Trade protectionism is alarming for bus export. China have encountered more and more anti-dumping and anti-subsidies investigations since joining WTO. And the figure was up to 58 in the first half of 2009. The tire tariff issue in America and anti-dumping investigations of aluminum alloyed wheel in EU were alarming China auto export. Many country has employed Trade protectionism to challenge financial crisis, adding that price is always taken as competitive tender mean in bus export.
For bus export is still new in China, chanciness is a major feature at the present stage. And there are two reasons to explain the problem, one is that international traders are not familiar with domestic bus industry, and another is that domestic bus builders are not timely to supply and demand information, namely, information asymmetry is the root cause of the chanciness.
