Summarize：www.chinabuses.org: Part 1 Analysis of sales increase in bus industry between Jan.-Sept. 2009 and Jan.-Sept. 2008
1. Overall sales increase in each length
Table 1 Analysis of overall sales increase in each length Jan.-Sept. 2009
|
|
Total
|
12＜L
|
11＜L≤12
|
10＜L≤11
|
9＜L≤10
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
109266
|
1666
|
18481
|
14857
|
8754
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
126373
|
2804
|
23942
|
17956
|
9523
|
|
year on year increase
|
-13.54
|
-40.58
|
-22.81
|
-17.26
|
-8.08
|
|
|
8＜L≤9
|
7＜L≤8
|
6＜L≤7
|
5＜L≤6
|
3.5＜L≤5
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
14179
|
19007
|
19107
|
7321
|
5894
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
16208
|
23387
|
18227
|
7574
|
6752
|
|
year on year increase
|
-12.52
|
-18.73
|
4.83
|
-3.34
|
-12.71
|
Figure 1 Analysis of overall sales increase in each length Jan.-Sept. 2009
It can be observed that:
Sales volume drops 13.54% year on year in first eight months this year, and it is an overall decline since Jan -45.9%, Feb -41.5%, March -34.2%, April -32.7%, May -32.2%, June -33.65%, July -28.03%, Aug -21.3% and Sept. -13.54%. It shows that financial crisis is still influencing bus market, but the decline amplitude became smaller than previous months, namely smaller than 15% for the first time, indicating the recovery period is peeping. Super large buses which are over 12-meter long saw the biggest decline -40.58%, then it comes 11~12-meter -22.81%, 7~8-meter -18.73%, 6~7-meter +4.83%, 5~6-meter -3.34%, and 9~10-meter -8.08%.
2. Coach
Table 2 Analysis of overall sales increase of coaches in each length Jan.-Sept. 2009
|
|
Total
|
12＜L
|
11＜L≤12
|
10＜L≤11
|
9＜L≤10
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
69991
|
496
|
9402
|
5566
|
3652
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
79359
|
374
|
10997
|
8043
|
4236
|
|
year on year increase
|
-11.8
|
32.6
|
-14.5
|
-30.8
|
-13.8
|
|
|
8＜L≤9
|
7＜L≤8
|
6＜L≤7
|
5＜L≤6
|
3.5＜L≤5
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
8015
|
13533
|
16372
|
7061
|
5894
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
8982
|
15829
|
17283
|
6863
|
6752
|
|
year on year increase
|
-10.8
|
-14.5
|
-5.3
|
2.9
|
-12.7
|
It can be observed that:
Sales volume drops 11.8% for coaches in the first nine months this year, which is slightly smaller than overall bus market; only super large buses and 5~6-meter buses saw increase, indicating that super large coaches are still increasing, but the base is not large, and 5~6-meter buses increased by 2.9%. Ten-eleven-meter buses saw the biggest decline, then it comes 11~12-meter, 7~8-meter, 6~7-meter, and 8~9-metre saw the smallest decline. It shows the decline of coaches contributes the main part of the overall decline in the first nine months decline in 2009 and financial crisis posed huge influence on the coaches market in this period, but the influence is weakening gradually.
3. Public transport buses
Table 3 Analysis of overall sales increase of public transport buses in each length Jan.-Sept. 2009
|
|
Total
|
12＜L
|
11＜L≤12
|
10＜L≤11
|
9＜L≤10
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
37199
|
930
|
7424
|
9278
|
5098
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
44562
|
2256
|
11057
|
9899
|
5129
|
|
year on year increase
|
-16.5
|
-58.8
|
-32.9
|
-6.3
|
-0.60
|
|
|
8＜L≤9
|
7＜L≤8
|
6＜L≤7
|
5＜L≤6
|
3.5＜L≤5
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
6131
|
5472
|
2606
|
260
|
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
7224
|
7485
|
836
|
676
|
|
|
year on year increase
|
-15.1
|
-26.9
|
211.7
|
-61.5
|
|
Sales volume drops 16.5% for public transport buses in first nine months this year, nearly 7% less than the first eight months, and this is also the eighth decline of public transport buses market since last year, indicating that public transport bus market was influenced by financial crisis and it also contributes the main reason of the overall decline of the public transport bus market. It can be seen that only 6~7-meter buses increased, up to 211.7%, indicating that countryside public transport bus market started to increase. Super large buses saw the biggest decline, up to 58.8%, then it comes 5~6-meter -61.5%, 11~12-meter -32.9%.
4. Sleeper bus
Table 4 Analysis of overall sales increase of sleeper buses in each length Jan.-Sept. 2009
|
|
Total
|
12＜L
|
11＜L≤12
|
10＜L≤11
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2009
|
1907
|
239
|
1655
|
13
|
|
Jan.-Sept.2008
|
2056
|
154
|
1888
|
14
|
|
year on year increase
|
-7.2
|
55.2
|
-12.3
|
-7.1
|
It can be observed that:
Sleeper buses saw overall decline in the first nine months 2009 year on year. The decline amplitude is up to 7.2%, nearly 0.1% less than the first eight months (7.1%). The 11~12-meter buses, main products of sleeper bus, saw the biggest decline, up to 233 vehicles. It is also noted that the decline amplitude of sleeper bus is less than coaches and public transport buses, and sleeper bus is also least influenced in the financial crisis.
